一次指数平滑法

利用模糊理论对一次指数平滑法的改进

An Improvement of Single-Index Moving Method with Fuzzy Set Theory

证明当存在订货提前期时，零售商采用移动平均法及一次指数平滑法预测会导致在需求预测，信息处理及传递过程中产生牛鞭效应；

The paper proves that with AR ( 1 ) process for the end demand , if retailer adopts moving average or exponential smoothing to forecast the non-zero lead time demand , then bullwhip effect in demand forecasting and processing will occur ;

在此之后，文章又重点论述了德尔菲预测法、一次指数平滑预测法、回归预测法的预测模型、方法。

Build up in thinking in frame this , article expound the fact , one level and smooth to predict law , regression predict model and application of law to come back index especially .

一次指数平滑模型预测法及实际应用

Predetermination and application of Linear Exponential Smoothing Model

应用时间序列方法预测时使用了简单一次移动平均预测法、一次指数平滑预测法、两次指数平滑预测法。

Applications of time-series forecasting methods have been used in a simple moving average forecast , a forecast of exponential smoothing , two exponential smoothing prediction method .